A Nawrocki win would continue that policy of obstruction, representing a huge political danger for Tusk. Opinion polls show support for his coalition eroding as voters grow frustrated over its inability to follow through on most of the promises it made during the 2023 campaign — ranging from undoing PiS’s legal reforms to prosecuting former officials on allegations of wrongdoing, changing Poland’s draconian abortion laws and more.
“A victory for Mr Trzaskowski will provide the Tusk government with renewed momentum and a clear two-and-a-half-year run before the next parliamentary election, during which it can rebuild its support base and restore a sense of purpose,” wrote Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor at the University of Sussex who studies Polish politics.
As president, Trzaskowski would spur a flood of legislation, said Śliz, the Tusk-led coalition MP.
“These laws should reach him as quickly as possible. These include [reforming] the National Council of the Judiciary, getting the Constitutional Tribunal in order, and separating the roles of prosecutor and justice minister,” he said.
But even if Trzaskowski replaces Duda, a return to the pre-PiS era is out of the question, said Maria Skóra, a political analyst and a visiting researcher at the European Policy Centre.
The problem is that the PiS-sponsored changes to the judiciary have taken root, with hundreds of judges — who the Tusk government says were wrongfully appointed — carrying out daily work affecting thousands of people.
“All these actions aimed at restoring the rule of law should ensure that citizens are not harmed, because if we have court rulings issued daily, abruptly cancelling them or overturning them would cause tremendous chaos,” Skóra said.
